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Typhoon "Rolly" now nears to Super Typhoon Category as it continue to intensify



SEVERE WEATHER BULLETIN #4

FOR: TYPHOON "#RollyPH" (GONI)
TROPICAL CYCLONE: WARNING
ISSUED AT 11:00 PM, 30 October 2020
(Valid for broadcast until the next bulletin to be issued at 5 AM tomorrow)
TYPHOON "ROLLY" CONTINUES TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY AND IS NEARING SUPER TYPHOON CATEGORY.

Track and intensity outlook:
• Track: On the forecast track, “ROLLY” will move west-southwestward tonight through tomorrow evening. On Sunday, it will gradually turn towards the west-northwest, bringing its inner rainbands-eyewall region near or over Catanduanes and the Camarines Provinces during the morning and afternoon hours and over the Quezon-Aurora area during the evening hours. The center of the eye of the typhoon is forecast to pass very close or over the Calaguas Islands on Sunday afternoon and make landfall over the Quezon-Aurora area on Sunday evening. After crossing Central Luzon, the center of “ROLLY” is forecast to exit the mainland Luzon landmass on Monday morning.
• Intensity: “ROLLY” underwent extremely rapid intensification over the last 24 hours and is now near the Super Typhoon category threshold. Owing to very favorable conditions, there is an increasing likelihood that this typhoon will reach Super Typhoon category over the next 12 hours. The typhoon is forecast to be near Super Typhoon strength (185-215 km/h) by time it passes very near to Bicol Region and makes landfall over the Aurora-Quezon area. After landfall, “ROLLY” is forecast to weaken considerably but will remain at typhoon category until it emerges over the West Philippine Sea.
Hazards affecting land areas:
• Rainfall: Tonight through tomorrow morning, the trough of “ROLLY” will bring light to moderate with at times heavy rains over Visayas, Palawan including Cuyo Islands, Zamboanga Peninsula, Northern Mindanao, Caraga, and Sulu Archipelago. Between tomorrow late evening and Sunday evening, heavy to intense rains due to “ROLLY” will be experienced over Bicol Region, CALABARZON, Metro Manila, Marinduque, and the northern portions of Occidental and Oriental Mindoro. Flooding (including flash floods), rain-induced landslides, and sediment-laden streamflows (i.e. lahar) may occur during heavy or prolonged rainfall especially in areas that are highly or very highly susceptible to these hazards. PAGASA Regional Services Divisions may issue local thunderstorm/rainfall advisories and heavy rainfall warnings as appropriate.
• Strong winds: In anticipation of strong breeze to near gale conditions associated with the approaching typhoon, more areas are now placed under TCWS #1. The wind signal in some provinces in the Bicol Region will be upgraded to TCWS #2 in the next bulletin as damaging gale-force to storm-force winds is expected to affect these areas within 24 hours from tomorrow early morning. Based on the intensity forecast, the highest possible wind signal will be TCWS #4. Potential impacts of the wind conditions to structures and vegetation under each wind signal are detailed in the TCWS section of this bulletin. Elsewhere, strong breeze to near gale conditions due to the northeasterlies will be experienced over Batanes, Babuyan Islands, Ilocos Norte, Apayao, and the coastal and mountainous areas of Cagayan and Isabela.
• Storm surge: There is a moderate to high risk of storm surge of up to 2.0 m over the coastal areas of Aurora, Quezon, Bicol Region, and Northern Samar in the next 48 hours, with isolated surge heights of up to 2.5 m over the coastal areas of San Miguel Bay (in Bicol Region).

Hazards affecting coastal waters:
Tomorrow, rough to phenomenal seas (2.5 to 15.0 m) will be experienced over the seaboard of areas where TCWS is in effect and rough to high seas (2.5 to 6.0 m) over the seaboards of Northern and Central Luzon and the eastern seaboards of Eastern Visayas (that are not under TCWS) and Caraga. Sea travel is risky for all types of seacrafts over these waters, especially those under TCWS. Moderate to rough seas (1.2 to 2.5 m) will be experienced over remaining seaboards of the country. Mariners of small seacrafts are advised to take precautionary measures when venturing out to sea. Inexperienced mariners should avoid navigating in these conditions.

Other tropical systems being monitored:
At 10:00 PM today, Tropical Storm “ATSANI” weakened into a tropical depression and at 10:00 PM, its center was estimated at 1,790 km East of Visayas (11.7°N, 142.1°E). It currently has maximum sustained winds of 55 km/h near the center and gustiness of up to 70 km/h. It is moving northwestward at 25 km/h. Based on latest meteorological data, “ATSANI” is forecast to enter the Philippine Area of Responsibility on Sunday. It is likely to re-intensify into a tropical storm in the next 24 to 48 hours. Due its distance from the Philippine landmass, it is less likely to bring severe weather over the country over the next 3 days.
Location of eye/center: At 10:00 PM today, the eye of Typhoon "ROLLY" was located based on all available data at 895 km East of Casiguran, Aurora (16.0°N, 130.5°E).
Strength: Maximum sustained winds of 215 km/h near the center and gustiness of up to 265 km/h.
Movement: Moving West Southwestward at 15 km/h.
Forecast Positions
• 24 Hour (Tomorrow evening): 295 km East Northeast of Virac, Catanduanes (14.7°N, 126.7°E)
• 48 Hour (Sunday evening): In the vicinity of General Nakar, Quezon (14.9°N, 121.4°E)
• 72 Hour (Monday evening): 445 km West of Dagupan City, Pangasinan (15.7°N, 116.2°E)
• 96 Hour (Tuesday evening): 825 km West of Central Luzon (OUTSIDE PAR) (15.4°N, 112.3°E)

TROPICAL CYCLONE WIND SIGNAL
TCWS #1 (30-60 km/h winds prevailing or expected in 36 hours)
Catanduanes, Camarines Norte, Camarines Sur, Albay, Sorsogon, Masbate including Ticao and Burias Islands, Quezon including Polillo Islands, Rizal, Laguna, Marinduque, and Romblon, Northern Samar, the northern portion of Samar (Tagapul-An, Almagro, Santo Nino, Tarangnan, Catbalogan City, Calbayog City, Santa Margarita, Gandara, Pagsanghan, San Jorge, Jiabong, Motiong, Paranas, San Jose de Buan, Matuguinao), the northern portion of Eastern Samar (Taft, Can-Avid, Dolores, Maslog, Jipapad, Arteche, Oras, San Policarpo), and the northern portion of Biliran (Kawayan, Maripipi)

The public and the disaster risk reduction and management council concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next Severe Weather Bulletin to be issued at 5 AM later.
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